The war in the Middle East has officially escalated. For the first time in history, Iranian missiles have attacked Israel. With an Israeli retaliation imminent, many are asking if we are seeing the beginning of World War 3.
– Iranian forces launched a barrage of missiles and drones at Israeli cities, marking the first direct attack from Iran on Israel.
– Tensions escalated following an Israeli strike on an Iranian Embassy in Damascus, seen as part of Israel’s broader conflict with Iran’s regional proxies.
– Iran’s international ties, including membership in organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, indicate it is not isolated and could receive support from allies in any conflict.
Over the weekend, Iranian forces unleashed a barrage of missiles and drones on cities throughout the nation of Israel. This marks the first-ever direct attack on Israel by Iran from Iranian territory. The attack began on Saturday night and lasted approximately five hours. Explosions were heard in cities throughout Israel, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Air raid sirens were reported in more than 720 locations throughout Israel. According to the Israeli military, their ‘Iron Shield defenses’ intercepted the vast majority of the more than 300 missiles and drones.
Video footage shows that the interceptions were very impressive. US officials are urging Israel to see the win in the interception success. Rather than retaliate against Iran, the US officials want Israel to embrace their defense success as proof they don’t even need to retaliate. US officials are trying to prevent a further escalation of this war. Two weeks ago, Israeli forces struck an Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria killing seven military advisers including three senior commanders.
The strike was a clear escalation in Israel’s war against Iran’s regional proxies particularly in Syria as well as in Lebanon via Hezbollah. The Syrian civil war has provided an opportunity for Iran to expand its influence in the region. Iran has been a longstanding ally of the Syrian government. They’ve been a staunch supporter of President Bashar al-Assad, primarily due to their shared geopolitical and ideological interests. Syria has served as a crucial link in Iran’s growing regional influence, providing a land route for the transportation of weapons and supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Over the last two weeks, tensions have been high in the region anticipating a retaliatory response on the part of Iran.
There is an admitted bizarre asymmetry in American foreign policy. State Department officials warned Iran that they had better not retaliate for the bombing of their embassy. If the roles were reversed and if Iran had bombed an Israeli embassy and killed several Israeli senior commanders, that would be considered an act of war and a retaliation would be seen as completely justified. So, Iran made it clear that they weren’t playing by those asymmetrical rules. So this retaliation over the weekend was expected.
If Israel strikes Iran in retaliation for this weekend, they will immediately incur the wrath of Hezbollah to their north in Lebanon. Hezbollah is a Shiite organization very closely allied with Iran. Most military analysts believe that a strike against Iran would almost immediately erupt into a two-front war for Israel involving both Iran and Lebanon. Iran, admittedly, has a very controversial and ambiguous relationship with the larger Arab world.
Iranians are Persians, not Arabs, and they are Shia, not Sunni. So the alliance with the Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon is not ethnic-based, but a sectarian alliance. Hezbollah and Lebanon are Arabs, and so the ethnic ties to the wider Arab world would be inflamed in the event of an Israeli attack.
Israel is calling Iran’s attack an act of war and they are promising a retaliatory response, so we’ll have to see what happens. One theory is that Israel is trying to drag the United States into this war, particularly against Iran. They want the US to provide deterrence from other Arab nations getting involved in a multi-front war against Israel while at the same time, both Israel and the US wipe out their common enemies in the region. The problem with that is that Iran has the clear sympathies of Russia and China. Ever since the eruption of the Syrian civil war back in 2011, Iranian and Russian ties have grown very close. Russia and Iran have coordinated joint military activities and shared intelligence in support of the Assad regime’s military operations. The Russian military provided air support to Iranian-backed ground forces, facilitating their offensives against opposition groups and terrorist organizations, including taking out ISIS.
In return, Iran has allowed Russia to use its air bases to conduct airstrikes in Syria. The alliance between Russia and Iran has grown very strong over the last decade, and Russia may not sit idly by while Iran is getting attacked, especially if US forces get involved. They’ll certainly, at the very least, supply weapons, money, and intelligence to Iran. And China has grown extremely close to Russia, declaring a limitless alliance between the two nations, with Iran becoming one of the most recent members to join their economic alliance known as BRICS.
Iran is not the isolated nation it was a decade ago. Iran now belongs to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS+, along with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. We can all pray that the situation in the Middle East remains contained and all of these countries do not get involved and escalate the situation!
Copyright, 2024. TurleyTalks.com
