Trump’s mugshot made Trump relatable to millions of particularly non-white voters. He became “one of them.” Voters who have consistently voted Democrat are now voting for Trump almost solely based on that image. CNN’s James Carville, a Democrat strategist, has commented on the state of the race right now:
Abby Phillips: "This might be the only trial of Trump this year. Is it time for Dwmocrats to move on and look at the fundamentals of this race?"
James Carville: "We have to. Because the fundamentals right now are depressing."Democrats need to return to their fundamentals:… pic.twitter.com/NUiWiRgDKe
— Eric Abbenante (@EricAbbenante) May 14, 2024
– The latest polling data paints a challenging picture for President Biden’s reelection prospects.
– Trump’s appeal to both rural white voters and non-white voters, driven by issues like the economy and illegal immigration, has shifted the political landscape significantly.
– If the current polling trends persist into the summer months, Biden will likely not be able to secure reelection.
The fundamentals of this race are depressing. The headline from the latest New York Times Poll that just dropped says, “Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden.” Trump is leading in 5 key swing states. Biden has been outspending Trump by at least 3 to 1 over the last several months, and yet he continues to fall further behind. Biden has not led in a single poll in Pennsylvania since March. He has not led in a single poll in Georgia since November of last year. He hasn’t led in a single poll in Nevada since October, or a poll in Arizona since April 2023, or North Carolina since March 2023.
Trump is getting record support from young and non-white voters. Trump’s political sweet spot is that he is galvanizing the rural white vote at the same time he’s getting record support from the non-white vote, largely because of the economy and illegal immigration. Blacks are polling with the highest level of support for mass deportation. They detest what’s happening at the southern border. Trump is getting record white support and non-white support.
BREAKING: Trump supporters in the crucial swing state of Georgia told MSNBC in a segment that former president Trump’s legal battles have made them more passionate about voting for him and a guilty verdict would not impact their support.
“No. It’s actually caused me to support… pic.twitter.com/yMpR4FBMvf
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) May 15, 2024
The latest ABC News poll shows that the under-30 vote is going for Trump by 5 points, it’s a nearly 30-point swing from 2020. The reason why Trump is getting numbers like this is largely because of the sizable lead he holds among young men under 30, who are siding with Trump by 11 points. Young women are siding with Biden by just 4, so that anemic support together with the double-digit lead that Trump has with young men is translating now into a massive political paradigm shift. Biden won the under-30 vote by nearly 30 points in 2020. Now they’re siding with Trump by 5.
Biden cannot lose the under-30 vote, and he can’t lose the massive margins he had in 2020 with the non-white vote and still win the election! It’s not mathematically possible even with all of the shenanigans that they’re going to try to pull off. There just aren’t enough voters. If the under-30 vote and non-white vote go to Trump in the numbers that we are currently seeing, there simply aren’t enough votes to manufacture that would make up for that.
Virginia and Minnesota are now in play! Right now, in Virginia, Trump and Biden are statistically tied! In Minnesota, the lone state that voted for Mondale in 1984, the Real Clear Politics polling aggregate that averages out all the polling done in Minnesota, shows Biden leading by an average of just 2 points. Trump is expanding the electoral map and forcing Biden to spend money in states that Biden should be leading in by double-digits.
Biden and the Democrats are clearly getting desperate, as the upcoming debates prove. Two debates have just been planned for this summer, and as the incumbent, Biden should not need to debate. If he was well ahead in all the polls, he wouldn’t debate just like Trump didn’t bother debating the other Republicans during the primaries. If these polls hold into June and July, there’s likely no coming back for Biden!
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