WAR in the Balkans?!

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has stated he will address the nation of Serbia within the next 48 hours. This comes amidst ominous posts on social media about a coming struggle and hard times for the Serbian nation. This is all happening while the high authorities in Sarajevo, Bosnia & Herzegovina (BiH) are attempting to arrest the President of Republika Srpska (the autonomous Serbian region of BiH) Milorad Dodik.

The High Representative of Bosnia & Herzegovina Christian Schmidt has enacted a new electoral law that the Serbs of Srpska have directly rejected. They have pledged to pass their own electoral law if changes are not made and are effectively claiming they will secede should their demands not be met. On March 28th, Srpska President Dodik stated: They are threatening me with arrest and I received information that told me that if my security guards resist, they will shoot me. I tell them that we will resist.” This is fueling speculation that perhaps Serbia will be intervening militarily to help the Serbian region.

This comes amidst panicked calls for help from the west from “Kosovo’s” self styled prime minister Albin Kurti who has reported on Serbian military getting very close to the kosovo border. At the same time Bosniak liberals are openly discussing a new Balkan war where they hope to defeat the “fascist” Serbs. If both Kosovo and Srpska are involved in a potential operation by the Serbs that would be an enormous geopolitical event indeed. If Serbia sought to reunify or establish a new situation on the ground in these extant territories assistance from Russia would be imperative.

“Kosovo” (which is recognized as part of Serbia by the majority of countries in the world) was recently moved further along the track towards membership in the Council of Europe with a vote to be held on their membership this coming April. This step and the territory’s possible entrance into the EU would be unacceptable to Serbia who sees the region as integral to the Serbian state and illegally occupied.

Serbia’s age old ally Russia, however, is about to make large advances into Ukraine. Zelensky himself has stated that they expect a large-scale Russian offensive at the end of May. The embassy of Kazakhstan in Ukraine has warned all of its nationals to leave the Odessa and Kharkov regions. It is clear Russia is about to expand its territory and attempt to wrap up the Ukrainian operation sometime in 2025. This means it could be difficult for the Serbs to expect direct assistance from the Russians at this time. Anything is possible, however, and we await Vucic’s address.

Conrad Franz is a Staff Writer at Turley Talks.

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