The latest reason for Democrats to panic is their disastrous polls. The latest polls that Mark Halperin, a former ABC News reporter, refers to are a complete nightmare for the Democrats.
Stop consuming MSM and press release reporting. Mark Halperin is doing oldschool journalism and looking deep at the trends and internal numbers:
“There’s a real possibility, based on what I’ve seen in terms of public and private data … that Kamala Harris could be where Joe… pic.twitter.com/mCSKM3lp2w
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 28, 2024
– Polling analyst Rich Baris noted that a 1-point lead for a Democrat in the post-convention Quinnipiac poll signals trouble.
– Kamala Harris received no post-convention polling bounce, with polls remaining steady, and betting markets shifting toward Trump due to Bobby Kennedy’s influence.
– The Kennedy-Shanahan team’s new commercial highlights the populist realignment, which is gaining traction among voters and causing a drop in Kamala’s polling numbers.
Quinnipiac in 2020 had Biden up +16 at the end of August in 2020. Now, they have Harris up by a point, 49 to 48. Quinnipiac had Biden up 11 the day before he ‘won’ the election by just 40,000 votes! Polling analyst Rich Baris said, ‘When a Democrat has a 1-point lead in the POST-CONVENTION Quinnipiac Poll, they’re in deep s***.’
Nate Silver, formerly of 538, has Trump back on top of the race. Trump just took at 5 point lead in Silver’s election forecast model. Trump has a 52% chance of winning as against Kamala’s 47% chance after three weeks of Kamala being on top. The key here is that Trump is now back in the lead a week after the DNC convention! Nate Silver, who many believe is a fraud, is now seeing this!
What was so extraordinary about this last convention is that Kamala got NO bounce. During the week, the polls remained relatively fixed. The betting markets interestingly shifted over to Trump and Polymarket had a double-digit swing to Trump over the course of the convention week because of Bobby Kennedy. Now we are seeing her polling begin to drop like a rock.
There are a number of pollsters who have analyzed the cross tabs and found that virtually all the polls that we have been seeing over the last 3 1/2 weeks are all response bias polls. They are not predictive of what’s going to happen in November. They were not predictive in August of 2016 or in August of 2020. They are not predictive now, especially in this unique circumstance of Kamala getting coronated without a single primary vote.
Now polls are starting to reflect a far more accurate sampling of the percentage of Republicans that will be coming out on Election Day or voting early. Republicans are now being rightly sampled and the polls are starting to look like they did just before Biden dropped out. We are now seeing the fruits of the populist realignment between Kennedy and Trump in the response to a new commercial put together by the Kennedy-Shanahan team:
Run this video EVERYWHERE 🔥 pic.twitter.com/fDNTWsO7c5
— Hodgetwins (@hodgetwins) August 30, 2024
This was shared by Nicole Shanahan, Robert Kennedy’s one-time running mate who’s now all-in with MAGA.
Nicole Shanahan: “I was completely misinformed about what MAGA is”
“The coming together of these two groups over the last week … has been really glorious.
And they gave us the name MAHA, Make America Healthy Again.
That was always the vision of this unity movement, this… pic.twitter.com/Dxo8TyGTGF
— Holden Culotta (@Holden_Culotta) August 29, 2024
This is reminiscent of what Brandon Struck of the Walk Away movement said ultimately red pilled him. Brandon is a gay hairdresser who voted for Hillary in 2016. As part of his Walk Away testimony, he even admitted to crying on the morning when he found out that Trump had won. But then he started to listen to Trump’s policies on border security, economic security, and cultural security and found them to be compelling and persuasive. When he shared this with his gay and liberal friends, they would all castigate him as a traitor!
These people would say things like, “Don’t you know Mike Pence wants to burn us at the stake?” and “Don’t you know Trump wants to throw us into prison?” This caused him to realize what the left does: threatens people into compliance through the mechanism of fear. Fear is the primary tool of the left! This is exactly what Nicole Shannahan is focusing on in these new ads. She thought of Trump in stigmatizing terms rooted in fear, and that fear functioned to keep her subservient to the left. This narrative about Trump is mainly pushed by the elite class.
This is what the populist realignment is ultimately all about. It is to create a new massive nationwide political constituency that finally takes down the establishment and its tyrannical unelected deep state. The deep state is desperately trying to impose upon us a presidential candidate that never won a single primary vote. With the way things are going, it doesn’t look like she’s going to fare much better in November!
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