It is official, President Trump has taken a massive lead in the top election forecasts. This is the first time that has ever happened and as one can see, the Democrats are absolutely panicking!
– Trump has opened up a nearly 30-point lead over Kamala Harris in the nationwide forecast.
– Democrats are panicking as Kamala Harris’ campaign struggles, with her chances of winning slipping to 35%.
– Democrats’ policies, particularly economic policies, remain deeply unpopular, contributing to their struggles.
.@ScottJenningsKY goes SCORCHED EARTH on this CNN political commentator:
"If people believe [Trump] is an extremist, then why isn't [Kamala] winning…?! If it's a tied race nationally, there's a 100% chance he's gonna win the electoral college!" pic.twitter.com/F9NZNcUL8L
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) September 9, 2024
The left is having an absolute meltdown as one of their own, the Democrat polling guru Nate Silver, is giving Trump a massive lead in his election forecast model just ahead of the big debate.Trump has thus far opened up a near 30 point lead over Kamala in the nationwide forecast. He now stands a 65 percent chance of winning in November, while Kamala has dropped down to just a 35% chance of winning. On top of that, Silver now projects that Trump will win every single swing state!
Trump has a near 80% chance of winning Arizona, a near 80% chance of winning North Carolina, and near 70% chance of winning Georgia. Furthermore, he currently has a 65% chance of winning Pennsylvania. If Kamala loses Pennsylvania it is over! Trump has several paths to 270, but Kamala has only one, and that path is only through Pennsylvania. According to Silver’s forecast model, that state is rapidly slipping through her hands. Now, it is not just Nate Silver’s forecast model that predicts Trump’s victory.
🚨 JUST IN – Trump holds a lead across electoral college models in the 2024 election
WIN ODDS:
🔴 Trump: 53.9% (+8.2)
🔵 Harris: 45.7% pic.twitter.com/HTxIOlLJ12— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 9, 2024
On this chart one can see that all the forecast models line up. Taking all the acquired information into account, one can confidently say that Trump is now officially leading the race according to the aggregate of all forecast models. Trump is leading Harris 54 to 46, 53.9% to Harris’ 45.7%. He is leading her by 8 points. As Scott Jennings said, that is an electoral landslide. This is what many are saying currently. Stephen Green wrote an article on PJ Media where he noted that the forecast models are basically predicting that Trump will see the biggest landslide for a Republican since George Bushsenior in 1988. However, one can not get too complacent or cocky. Instead, act as if Trump is down 10 points and get every single person you know out to the polls.
It is widely acknowledged that Kamala’s campaign is crumbling into dust right before our eyes. Pollster Matt Towery on the Lara Ingram show last night discussed this. This is what has been argued now for weeks: the Democrats’ hopes that switching out Biden would be the answer to all their problems would eventually blow up in their face. Remember, the key assumption that the Democrats are making here is that their only problem was Biden. In other words, they had a personnel problem, not a policy problem. Their chances of winning the White House were dwindling because of a person, not because of policies. So they believed that if they got rid of Biden and replaced him with someone else, anyone else, they will be fine. They believed this because they have got the legacy media as their advocates cheerleading their policies.
The fundamental problem with that assumption is that, when we go back and look at the data from the polling that was absolutely clobbering Biden, it was his policies that voters were rejecting. Every single poll out there showed that the vast majority of the country disapproved of how he has handled inflation, how he has handled jobs, how he has handled the economy, how he has handled the southern border, and how he is handling foreign policy. So, simply switching out the person without a fundamental change in policy was bound to boomerang. It was bound to knock the Democrats back to the same polling they had with Biden. And that is exactly what is happening with Kamala. No amount of glitz and glam and puff pulling seems to be able to change that.
Moreover, and this observation is owed particularly to Robert Barnes, they thought by putting Kamala in as Biden’s replacement, they would reawaken the centrality of identity politics in this campaign. Democrat operatives believed that because Kamala ticks all the right boxes, that those boxes would correspond to voting constituencies reanimated by identity concerns. However, what is found, particularly in the polling of non-white working class voters, is that they are increasingly rejecting identity politics for class politics.
They are no longer seeing themselves in racial or gender or ethnic or sexual terms. Instead, they are seeing themselves in economic terms. And they see Kamala as part of a permanent political class that governs according to its own interest concerns which is only concerned about its own power and affluence, at the expense of their standards of living.
So this appears to be one of the reasons why Kamala’s campaign just simply is not working. The policies, particularly the economic policies, of the Biden administration remain deeply unpopular among the vast majority of the country. No amount of rebranding appears to be able to overcome that unpopularity. That is why the election forecasts are all moving to Trump, and that is why the Democrats are in an absolute panic.
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