Republican Surge in Early Voting as Kamala Struggles in Key States

Voting has already started, and you’re not going to believe what’s happening!

– In North Carolina, the 2024 mail-in ballot requests show a shift, with Democrats down to 40% (from 52% in 2020) and Republicans up to 22% (from 18% in 2020).

– A court has ordered Robert Kennedy Jr.’s name to be removed from North Carolina and Michigan ballots, which may aid Trump’s support.

– In Georgia, vote-by-mail requests have dropped 90%, suggesting an advantage for Trump as voting begins.

Voting for the 2024 election is officially underway. New data coming out of some key swing states suggests that the Kamala collapse has officially begun! Let’s start with the key swing state of North Carolina. The vote-by-mail breakdown in 2020 was 51% Democrat and 18% Republican. In 2022, it dropped slightly to 49% for Democrats and 17% Republican.

Now the Democrats have plunged to 40% from a high of 52% in 2020, and Republicans are up to 22% from 18% in 2020. Trump won North Carolina in 2020 and he beat Biden 50 to 48. Now, in 2024, the Democrats are down and the Republicans are up in terms of voting by mail. That Republican surge in vote-by-mail requests parallels the significant voter registration advantage they have. Republicans have out-registered the Democrats 2 to 1 in North Carolina.

The Republicans were able to overcome the massive vote-by-mail deficit in 2020 and in 2022 when they won a supermajority in their state legislature. One of the reasons is that North Carolina Democrats inordinately vote Republican. North Carolina Democrats vote more Republican than Democrats in almost any other state. They are old school conservative Democrats who just never changed their party affiliation. A Democrat voter advantage in North Carolina does not translate into an actual voting advantage for the Democrats.

The historian Larry Schweikart has been following the mail-in ballot requests from the Tar Heel state, and he’s pointing out that things just get worse for Kamala. Whites now comprise nearly 71% of the mail in ballot requests, whereas blacks have dropped off to only 11.7%. Blacks were 16% of mail-in ballot requests in 2020, but now they have dropped to just shy of 12%.

To make matters even worse for Harris, more blacks are voting Trump than ever before. Upwards of 20% are voting for Trump. Fewer blacks are voting in North Carolina while at the same time MORE are voting for Trump. As Schweikart notes here, the electorate in 2024 is turning out to be much more white and Republican.

The first post-Labor day polling has been published by the New York Times, which tends to be a bellwether for November. One of the stats that came out of this poll was that Trump has doubled his support among whites from 2020. In 2020, Trump was leading Biden among white voters by 7 points, 49 to 42. He is now beating Harris by twice that: 54 to 50. The white vote is higher now in the 2024 race is disastrously dire for Kamala.

To make matters even worse for Kamala, a court has just ordered Robert Kennedy’s name to be removed from North Carolina ballots. Democrats have been desperately trying to keep Kennedy’s name on the swing state ballots after data was released that he was hurting Trump’s chances at winning those states, drawing populist support away from Trump. Now as he has joined forces with Trump, he has successfully sued to have his name removed from North Carolina and Michigan’s ballots.

Jack at Red Eagle Politics has highlighted data that shows that the Democrat mail-in ballot requests are significantly down from 2020. They have 60% less than they had at this time in 2020. We are simultaneously seeing a massive increase among GOP mail-in ballot requests compared to this time in 2022, during the midterms.

Republican mail-in ballot requests are up by nearly 85% of where they were at this time just two years ago. Democrat requests are up as well, but marginally at only about 18%. The Democrat advantage in both 2020 and 2022 has basically been wiped out. This suggests not only that Republicans are taking mail-in voting seriously, which we’ve been arguing that they need to, but that the voter enthusiasm is high with Pennsylvania Republicans. This data parallels the massive surge in Republican voter registration in Pennsylvania.

In Georgia, vote by mail ballot requests have dropped 90%, going from 800,000 in 2020 to now just 80,000. Georgia has instituted some of the strictest election integrity laws in the nation. They have a MAGA-majority overseeing their state election board. As voting begins, it looks like Trump is poised to dominate like never before all as the Kamala campaign appears to be crumbling!

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