The first post-Labor Day polling has just dropped, and it is absolutely devastating for Kamala Harris.
– The New York Times/Siena poll shows President Trump with a 1-point lead over Kamala Harris.
– Trump is leading by large margins in key regions: 11 points in the Midwest, 17 in the South, and 16 in the West.
– The electoral map shows Trump on course to win 312 electoral votes, which is more than his 2016 victory.
The Kamala campaign is officially fizzling out. The New York Times/Siena poll which tends to be a bellwether poll for November, just dropped. It shows President Trump with a one point lead over Kamala! Including other candidates like Jill Stein and Cornel West, Trump’s lead grows to 2 points. The New York Times poll that dropped at this same time in the 2020 campaign showed Biden with a near 10 point lead over Trump.
NYT/SIENA — October 2020 vs. September 2024
Kamala is in very serious trouble. pic.twitter.com/5hVGMc6z0d
— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) September 8, 2024
In an election where Biden ‘won’ by just 40,000 votes, he was up by nearly 10 points. By that measure, Trump is absolutely crushing Kamala. Trump is leading by 11 in the Midwest, 17 in the south, and 16 in the west. The Midwest includes the key swing states of Wisconsin and Michigan, and at the same time in 2016, Trump was leading the Midwest region by just over 4 points. In 2020, his lead shrank to 2.1. Now, Trump’s lead over Kamala has hit double digits, leading by 11 points!
🚨NYT POLL: Donald Trump outperforming 2016 and 2020 in the Midwest
2016: +4.3
2020: +2.1
2024: +11 pic.twitter.com/vszOgdgFWR— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 8, 2024
The election forecast models keep swinging more in Trump’s favor. Democrat-darling Nate Silver’s models find that Trump has now opened up a whopping 28-point lead over Kamala in the electoral college prediction poll. Trump now has a 64% chance of winning in November, whereas Kamala has dropped to a dismal 36%. Trump’s chances of winning the White House officially passed the 60% mark in Silver’s and the RCP average’s forecast models.
55% of voters see Harris as ‘more of the same’ of what they’ve been getting with Sleepy Joe. 53% of voters see Trump as representing a ‘major change.’ The Democrats believed that they could save their chances at the White House by switching out Biden with another candidate. But that is NOT what the polling was showing. All the data showed that voters were rejecting Biden because they were overwhelmingly rejecting his policies.
This is the projected map according to Nate Silver's 2024 election model.
Trump's odds are up to 63.8%. pic.twitter.com/36FVy2V5kK
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) September 8, 2024
The electoral map as it stands according to the election forecast shows Trump is on course to win 312 electoral votes. That’s 8 more than he won in 2016. Neo-con, anti-Trump Bill Kristol said ‘Distressing—depressing—alarming. After everything—after January 6th, after clear evidence a second term would be far more authoritarian than the first, after the ever-increasing radicalization of MAGA world—Trump now has more support than he had in 2016 or 2020.’
It took a New York Times poll to wake these leftists out of their neocon, pro-war, pro-Deep State echo chamber. Trump has, for the last year, amassed a support base that far exceeds anything he amassed either in 2016 or 2020. His polling over the last 12 months has far surpassed the polling from either 2016 or 2020. The New York Times could have buried this poll. In the days following that disastrous Democrat convention, the legacy media has been trying to figure out what to do.
We are now at the beginning of the second week of September and Harris' response bias-driven lead has already evaporated.
Past is not always prologue, but Clinton didn't start to erode like this until the last two weeks, and Biden never did, yet still nearly lost.
— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) September 8, 2024
Rich Baris has been analyzing the polling, and noted that the response bias polls have all dried up. Hillary’s response bias polls didn’t start evaporating until mid-October, and Biden’s response bias polls never evaporated for the whole of 2020. Kamala is poised to be even MORE of a disaster than Hillary was. THAT is what this poll drop by the New York Time is REALLY telling the Democrats.
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