Predictive indicators bypass all of this polling propaganda and show just how strong of a position Trump has right now even in the midst of all of this insanity!
– Kamala Harris’s low job approval rating suggests she is unlikely to win the election if it remains in the low 40s.
– Trump’s retrospective approval is strong at 55%, with significant leads on key issues like the economy, border security, and foreign policy.
– Trump is in a stronger position now than in past elections, while the Democratic candidate appears weaker against him.
The polling analysis from Gold Crown Politics made interesting observations on predictive indicators that bypass the polling confusion, the polling obfuscation that the media is blitzkrieging us with, and provides tremendous clarity in terms of where we are in this race.
Job approval is a MAJOR predictive indicator that election analysts look at in comparison to the general election results, so for example, when comparing Obama’s and Bush’s approval ratings on the day of their respective elections, Obama had a 50.1% job approval, and Bush had a 49.5% job approval. Their job approvals are almost identical to the vote totals that they got. Obama’s 50.1% job approval rating translated into 51% of the vote. In 2004, Bush’s 49.5% approval ratingtranslated into 50.7% of the vote.
This is why Democrats ultimately ousted Biden. They didn’t care about his senility. They knew that there was no way an incumbent with a 33% approval rating was going to be reelected. Trump’s general election percentage results were significantly higher than his average job approval in November of 2020. He was polling at about 44% in November 2020, but he got 46.8% of the vote, so that’s a 3 point jump from his approval rating.
Kamala, even with all of this fabricated glitz and glamor that the media is surrounding her with, has an approval rating barely above Biden’s levels. She’s polling at barely 40%! This means for the general election that if her job approval continues to hover in the low-40s, she is NOT winning this election.
To make matters even worse for Kamala, we are now seeing Trump’s retrospective approval, which is what voters now think of Trump’s presidency four years out. His retrospective approval is through the roof, which even CNN is admitting. They have polls that show Trump with a 55% retrospective job approval. When it comes to the ‘who do you trust more’ polling, Trump is +6 on the economy. He’s up nearly 20 on the southern border, and he’s up 7 on foreign policy.
Job approval is a very accurate election indicator. Favorability is another key predictive indicator that election analysts look at. What we tend to see in elections is that a candidate will get a vote share that is in alignment with their favorability. Favorability tends to corroborate the predictive indicators we get with job approval!
According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump’s favorability right now is actually at an all-time high. He’s at 44.3% with leaners, which are those who claim they’re undecided. When asked, ‘if you had to make a choice, do you find Trump favorable or unfavorable?’ that number goes up to about 46%. If you compare Trump’s favorability now to where he was back in 2020, he’s currently enjoying a higher favorability rating.
He has the highest favorability of his political career right now. So for example, in 2020, his favorability was in the low-40s, and that’s adjusted with leaners, he was at about 43%. It was even worse in 2016, it was actually at 38-39%. Trump is viewed more favorably now than he was back in 2020 or 2016. The key observation that this election analyst Gold Crown Politics makes is that if you compare a candidate’s favorability to their overall vote share they get on election day, it’s almost identical.
We are seeing a comparable development in the key swing state of Nevada. The Democrat lead in Nevada has collapsed. In 2020, Democrat voter registration led by nearly 5%. Today, that lead has collapsed to just 1.67%. The Democrats lead by just 30,000 voters, and now it looks like the GOP is about to flip Nevada. We already saw this with the election of Joe Lombardo for governor in 2022.
The left is doing everything they can to get us distracted from all of these other election indicators and dynamics to demoralize us because they know how pumped we are to vote for Trump. They want you to be as dejected as they are with the weakest incumbent in modern politics. All these dynamics show that Trump is stronger and better positioned to win than he has ever been, while the Democrat candidate is weaker than he or she has ever been against him. Trump is weathering this fabricated blitzkrieg that does appear, unfortunately for the Democrats, to be having very little result!
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