The numbers coming out of the national union vote are terrifying the Democrats, and now we are seeing new pollingcoming out of New York and New Jersey that’s going to put that terror on steroids!
– Rasmussen polling from New York shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by only 11 points, compared to Biden’s 23-point margin in 2020.
– In June, Lee Zeldin argued that Trump had a real shot at winning New York, pointing out that Trump was within 6 points of Biden, just outside the margin of error.
– If these trends from New York and New Jersey continue, Pennsylvania and other swing states may become even more challenging for her.
The latest Rasmussen polling coming out of New York is a running average, which is the average of the polling they have been doing on a daily basis. Right now, Kamala is leading Trump by just 11 in a state that Biden won by 23 points. Kamala is now leading Trump in one of the bluest states in the nation by less than half of what Biden got in 2020. Kamala has lost more than half the margin that Biden was able to win the state by. We have been seeing this pattern for weeks now:
In June, when Biden was still the nominee, Lee Zeldin, who came within just a few points of getting elected as governor of New York, had a piece in the New York Post arguing that Trump has a very good shot at winning New York. He pointed out that New York independents favored Trump at the time by 10 points, which was putting him within just six points of Biden, just outside the margin of error. Biden won New York by 23 points in 2020. Trump, in June, had come within earshot of actually making it inside the margin of error.
Zeldin was arguing at the time that Trump had more of a chance at upsetting the Democrats in New York than any Republican since Bush Senior. These numbers coming out of Rasmussen now with Kamala in the race are more par for the course than the exception in terms of the polling coming out of New York. We have comparable numbers coming out of Jersey.
Kamala’s lead now, according to Rasmussen, is down to single digits in New Jersey. As a point of comparison, this is in a state where Biden won by 16 points. The pattern we are seeing is that Kamala’s lead is half of what Biden’s margin was. This is a key analytical frame for understanding what’s really happening here. These Rasmussen surveys reveal to us that Kamala’s shrinking margins in New York and New Jersey are most likely crippling her in eastern PA, in counties like Bucks County, which is a New York sleepover county.
A sizable portion of Bucks County residents commute to New York for work, so in effect, they are New Yorkers, but they are a bit more conservative and obviously prefer living in PA than they would New York. They tend to vote more to the right than their ilk in New York. If Kamala has lost half the Democrat margin in New York and New Jersey, what would the polls look like if the same pattern applied in eastern PA?
While Rasmussen has been surveying New York and New Jersey, these are the polls that are coming out of PA: Fox has Trump +1, Emerson has Trump +1, Atlas Intel, the most accurate pollster of 2020 has Trump +3, Insider Advantage has Trump +2, Trafalgar, also one of the most accurate of 2020, has Trump +3.
So where is this hemorrhaging of support coming from? CNN’s polling analyst is sounding the alarm that Kamala Harris is seeing the lowest support from the union vote of any Democrat in a generation. What’s so interesting is that she is getting half of the union support that Biden got. It’s the same pattern that we are seeing in the polling: Kamala has lost half of the union support that Biden had in 2020.
There is no way Kamala can win while she is performing as badly as she currently is with her key Democrat constituencies. She’s losing the white working class by record numbers, she’s losing the non-white working class by record numbers for a Democrat, she’s losing the margins she needs among Black voters, and she’s losing Latinos. The bottom line here is that you can’t lose your own historic constituencies by this much and still win an election. If what’s happening in New York and New Jersey are any indicators, states like PA will be the least of Kamala’s problems!
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