Early voting has begun, and Kamala isn’t laughing anymore. She is officially LOSING Virginia, a state that no Democrat has lost in 20 years! We are going to see what these numbers mean for a whole host of other states as well!
Look where the energy is in the #2024election! Compare Republican to Democrat. Can you spot @VinceCoglianese? @GorkaKatie?
This is deep Dem Fairfax! Virginia is Trump Country. @SebGorka @LarryOConnor @ChrisPlanteShow @WMALDC pic.twitter.com/APdtvJ3i6T— Bart Marcois (@bmarcois) September 20, 2024
– Early voting data from Virginia shows strong turnout in Republican districts, significantly outpacing Democratic ones.
– Voter turnout in Trump-supporting southwest Virginia counties is up over 200% compared to 2020.
– If Kamala loses Virginia, the chances of her holding onto traditionally blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania may also be in jeopardy.
The early voting data is in, and Kamala is losing Virginia. Kamala is losing a state no Republican has won since 2004. THIS is a disaster for the Democrats who are doing everything they can to convince us that this election in 2008 all over again.
Virginia is divided into 11 congressional districts and the voting numbers are coming in courtesy of the Virginia Public Access Project. What VPAP is showing is that the top four districts in voter turnout are all deep red. So the red districtsare congressional districts 1, 5, 6, and 9 which have cast just over 25,000 votes. The five Democrat districts, 3, 4, 8, 10 and 11, have only cast just over 20,000 votes, and the swing districts, 2 and 7, have cast just over 7,000 votes. What we are seeing in Virginia is that the four Republican districts are outvoting the five Democrat districts.
They are coming within just a few thousand votes of actually beating both the Democratic districts and swing districts combined. The voter turnout in Virginia’s red districts is almost beating both the blue and purple districts put together. The voter turnout is through the roof in these heavily Republican districts. Every southwest Virginia county, which collectively voted for Trump by upwards of 70%, have doubled their 2020 early vote numbers.
Buchanan, Bath, and Lee County were all up over 200% in voter turnout from 2020. Mathews County, which voted 65% for Trump, may end up having the highest voter turnout in the entire state. By contrast, early voting in the heavily Democrat Prince William County is down 45% from where they were at the same time in 2020. Jurisdictions that voted for Biden are showing a turnout increase of 64%, but jurisdictions that voted for Trump are showing a turnout increase of 83%, a 19 point turnout advantage.
This is important because early voting was a key factor to Glenn Youngkin’s strategy for winning the state. Up until he won the gubernatorial election in 2021, Virginia Republicans were getting clobbered in the early vote totals, and their election day turnout, which they always dominate, simply couldn’t make up the difference. So Youngkin’s campaign dedicated substantial efforts to get the Republican vote out early, such that the usually largely Democratic lead prior to Election Day was dramatically reduced.
Youngkin was able to go on to win with the Election Day turnout! It looks like the same thing is happening here with Trump. Things could change as we have another 40 days of this to go, but as things stand right now in terms of early voting, it appears that Trump is crushing Kamala in the otherwise reliably blue state of Virginia. Two high level, back to back polls show the race within the margin of error.
The University of Mary Washington has it at a 2 point race, with Harris up 48 to 46. The latest Roanoke Poll has Harris up by 3, 47 to 44. By comparison, in 2020, University of Mary Washington had Biden up by 17. They FAR overestimated the Democrat margin, while at the same time, Roanoke nailed the margin. They had Biden winning Virginia by 11, and he won by 9.4.
The Real Clear Politics polling aggregate now has the race at 4.5 in a state that Biden won by 10. A Research America poll just dropped that shows the race tied in VA. Kamala also is not even going to come close to winning North Carolina since North Carolina votes to the right of VA. Democrat requests are down nearly 9% from 2020, whereas Republican requests are up nearly 4. That’s the pattern we’re seeing across the board wherever ballot requests have started.
If Kamala is losing Virginia, there’s no way she will win North Carolina. If she is losing Virginia, she is losing every single state in the blue wall because there are significantly more Republicans in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania than Virginia. These states consistently vote to the right of VA. This shift in Virginia polling goes way beyond Virginia. Based on the voter registration trends and early voting, Virginia is on its way to turning red in November!
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