CNN's Harry Enten is openly admitting that the polls they've championed are now proving worthless. With the 2026 midterms just eight days away, Republicans are poised to outperform expectations, potentially dashing Democrats' hopes of winning the Senate. Over 20 million ballots have already been cast, giving us a clear picture of a red wave.
- Republican early voting in Florida shows a 15-point lead over Democrats, signaling a decisive GOP victory.
- Democrats are withdrawing support from key Florida races, acknowledging looming Republican wins.
- States like Ohio, Texas, and Arizona mirror Florida's Republican surge, hinting at broader national trends.
In Florida, Republicans are outvoting Democrats by an astonishing 15 points as of 10 a.m. today. This trend has been consistent since in-person early voting began, with Republicans initially up by a mere 0.1%, then climbing to a 4-point lead, followed by 8%, 12%, and now 15%. Democrats need a 200,000-vote lead in early voting to withstand the Republican turnout on election day, which they clearly lack. Angie Nixon and David Jolly are effectively finished, poised to be defeated by Ashley Moody and Byron Donalds, respectively. Democrats have even pulled funding from two Florida districts they hoped to flip—Florida’s 7th and 25th—conceding these seats to the GOP.
Florida serves as a bellwether for other states like Ohio, Texas, and Arizona. A strong Republican turnout there often signals similar trends across the Sun Belt and Midwest. Historically, Florida and Ohio have backed the same presidential candidate in 12 of the last 13 elections; Texas and Arizona have also frequently aligned with Florida. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton is leading Jimmie Talafreako, with current polling showing Republicans ahead by three points in early voting. Democrats, however, are failing to secure the substantial early lead needed to compete in Texas. Travis County, crucial for Democrats, is showing signs of voter exhaustion, with numbers down 40% from last Monday, while Republican stronghold Montgomery County is only 20% down, maintaining strong GOP momentum.
As we witness these historic shifts, it's crucial to understand the underlying forces at play. To gain deeper insights into this cultural revival, claim your free copy today.
Arizona's Maricopa County, home to three-fifths of the state’s population, shows Republicans leading in early voting by seven points—a strong indicator for Arizona, where 80% of votes are cast early. Democrats have abandoned Arizona's 2nd District, removing funds from a race they once hoped to claim, as early voting shows Republicans dominating 54% to 26%.
In Ohio, Democrats are projected to enter election day with a 6.5-point lead in early voting, but this won’t withstand the Republican turnout, which is expected to shift the electorate by 17 points in favor of the GOP. This spells victory for Republicans in both the Senate and Governor’s races. A Republican surge in Ohio could also herald gains in Iowa and Michigan, where Mike Rogers is running a strong campaign against a flawed Democratic opponent.
Alaska presents an intriguing scenario where the urban areas lean Republican and the rural ones Democrat. Republican Dan Sullivan is leading in early voting, despite deliberate efforts to confuse voters with two candidates named Dan Sullivan on the ballot—a blatant attempt at election tampering. Unfortunately, North Carolina seems lost to Democrats due to Roy Cooper's popularity and substantial funding, making it a likely Senate seat loss for Republicans. However, Republicans might flip North Carolina's District 1, though District 11 remains contested.
Brace yourself for a likely Senate seat loss in North Carolina, but remain cautiously optimistic about a potential pickup in Michigan. All signs point to a strong Republican turnout, turning the anticipated Democratic blue wave into a mere puddle.
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