Who Would Win the Next American Civil War?

Is America headed for another civil war? The George Floyd riots that burned cities throughout the nation, along with the rise of patriot militias surging to record numbers has several pundits saying that the United States is indeed on the precipice of civil war.

– A recent poll found that a majority of Republicans believe that the United States is headed toward another civil war.

– Dr. David Kilcullen has argued that if a civil war were to break out in the United States, it would be similar to the civil wars in Colombia.

– Red regions have massive advantages over blue regions, both regionally and tactically.

recent poll found that a significant number of both Republicans and Democrats believe that violence is a justifiable response to their political opponents. Another poll found that a majority of Republicans, 53% believe that our nation is indeed headed toward another civil war.

But all this of course raises the question: what would, God forbid, such a civil war look like, and even more so, who would win?

Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene turned heads across the country several months ago when she openly called for a national divorce between red states and blue states. According to a recent survey conducted by the Center of Politics at the University of Virginia, a majority of Trump voters, as well as a significant minority of Biden voters, were both in favor of their state’s secession from the United States. All told, 52% of surveyed Trump voters and 41% of Biden voters support seceding from one another in some way.

Several pundits recognize that there is a growing divide between red states and blue states over national identity and culture. When there are two populations so radically divided as we have here in the States, it becomes a legitimate question: are we two different countries within a single nation? Have we, in many respects, already separated from one another, and now we just need to “close the deal?”

If we think about our nation as basically entailing two different countries, red and blue, we get a glimpse of a rather stark reality. As you can see, the red country, the conservative country, is overwhelming in terms of land mass. According to a study by the Brookings Institute, back in 2008, Democrat-voting districts encompassed 39% of the US land area as compared with the 61% expanse of Republican districts. By 2018, that number changed dramatically. Democrat-voting districts imploded to just 20% of the map.

Republicans now dominate 80% of the nation’s land area. The Democrats have become an almost entirely urban, metropolitan party. This regional disparity completely does away with the notion of red states vs blue states. There’s no such thing: for example, in the state of Oregon, which is considered one of the most reliably blue states in the nation, 29 of their 36 counties are solid red, often voting for the Republican candidate by margins of over 40 points.

Were a civil war to break out, blue states in effect disappear. There would only be blue regions which are all surrounded by a massive sea of red regions. This would be very significant if a civil war broke out. Not only could red regions cut off the blue states’ supply lines, but red regions have all the natural resources. Red regions have all the commodities they need for the food and fuel necessary for social stability,

Blue regions, on the other hand, being primarily urban and cosmopolitan, are wholly dependent on supply chains for virtually all of their daily resources. The red region commodities advantage may be decisive were hostilities to break out between red and blue regions. Moreover, 66% of Republicans report that they live in a household with a firearm, as compared to just 31% of Democrats.

Red regions are armed to the teeth, whereas blue regions simply aren’t. It’s no surprise then that over 60% of our nation’s counties – all red regions — have been officially designated as second amendment sanctuaries.

Finally, red regions have witnessed a stunning growth in the number of patriot militias. One report found that the number of Patriot militias has doubled in just the last 10 years. Organizations such as the Boogaloo Boys, the Oath Keepers, the Three Percenters, and the Proud Boys are merely just the tip of the iceberg of what’s estimated to be now over 500 active patriot militias throughout the nation. All of this together is reminiscent of a scenario that has played out before in history.

Dr. David Kilcullen, an expert in counter-insurgency, has recently argued that if a civil war were to break out in the United States it would be something akin to the civil wars that ravaged the nation of Colombia from 1948 to 1958. Interestingly, that civil war began with racial riots in the cities over perceived social inequalities. They were responded to by citizen militias in the rural parts of Colombia.

The police sided with the more conservative rural militias, and if this scenario were to play out in the United States, that would mean that the suburbs of our nation would become the battlefield, with both urban and ex-urban forces competing for control over the suburbs. So what Kilcullen argued is that what we would then be seeing is armed gangs taking over our cities like we’ve seen with BLM or Antifa-stan in Portland and Seattle, for example, while citizen militias would be taking over our exurbs.

The two would be fighting for control over our suburbs as a buffer zone. That’s akin to what happened in Colombia. If such a scenario were to play out here, it’s rather obvious that red regions have massive advantages – regional as well as tactical — over blue regions. So while we of course all pray that things never come to this, were a civil war to break out, red areas have many crucial advantages over blue regions.

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