We have the first prediction from a major historian about who is going to win in 2024. According to him 2024 is going to be a year like no other!
– Historical patterns show early frontrunners win Republican primaries.
– Recessions historically have hindered sitting presidents’ re-election chances
– Prominent historian sees Trump as the frontrunner with a strong possibility of winning in 2024!
The Scottish-American historian Niall Ferguson has predicted that President Trump will most likely win it all in 2024. The Stanford University professor turned heads in a recent op-ed for The Spectator, where he laid out a comprehensive case for why Trump will win a second term. Ferguson recognized that when Trump was first indicted by that corrupt Soros-backed Manhattan DA that his indictment was going to backfire. This is what Ferguson argues is happening as we speak.
All that’s happening as a result of all of this law-fare and weaponized legalism is Trump’s numbers are going up and his fundraising is skyrocketing. The Trafalgar Group found that 79% of likely voters believe that we live in a two-tiered justice system that deliberately protects some at the expense of others. That includes 77% of independents. 8 in 10 likely voters believe that we have a compromised justice system that operates by double standards. This indictment and the recent jury decision are easily seen by a significant number of those 8 in 10 as blatant examples of an unfair legal system that’s being weaponized to deliberately hurt people.
Ferguson thinks that all of this lawfare is ironically working in Trump’s favor. But then he gives two interrelated arguments that have convinced him that Trump is going to win in 2024. Now, let’s start with Trump’s prospects for winning the Republican nomination. If he doesn’t win the nomination, all the rest is moot. First, Ferguson notes that Trump is the leader in the increasingly crowded Republican field. He is beating DeSantis by an average margin of nearly 30 points, 52 to 22. Trump’s lead now is quite different from January where he led by only 13 points. A 13-point lead is still quite significant, but that 13-point lead has exploded over the last few months, and it doesn’t look like it’s going anywhere.
There is another predictive indicator here which is the fact that the early frontrunners generally win Republican primaries. The early frontrunner has won Republican primaries in six out of eight competitive races since 1972 when the modern system of primaries was introduced. Democrat primaries are a bit more ambiguous, but when it comes to Republican primaries, generally speaking, they’re fairly predictable. Whoever is the first to lead almost always goes on to win the nomination. Ferguson believes that Trump has the nomination.
Ferguson perceives the big issue for Biden, historically speaking for a sitting president, is a recession. Larry Summers, the former treasury secretary, has a good forecasting track record and he saw inflation coming several months before it hit. Larry is predicting with a 70% probability that we’ll be in a major recession within the next year. He is not alone. The bank failures that we’ve seen over the last few months are simply underscoring the financial crisis that appears to be already upon us.
This is important in terms of forecasting elections. No Democrat president since FDR, and no president since Calvin Coolidge a century ago has secured re-election if a recession has occurred in the two years before the nation votes. This is why the Biden White House is panicking. This is also why the legacy media has thus far refused to use the word ‘recession’ to describe the country’s current state. They know it’s a death knell for incumbent presidents seeking reelection.
Ferguson says, ‘The lesson of history is clear – the Republican frontrunner usually wins the nomination, and a post-recession incumbent usually loses the presidential election.’ This is why he sees Trump going all the way in 2024. Of course, anything can happen, and we’re now in a new era of ballot harvesting and mail-in voting that the Republicans are going to have to master, and Trump has already said that they’re going to crush it on ballot harvesting as we’ve never seen. If that’s the case, then it does look like we may be seeing the single greatest political comeback imaginable in 2024!
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