There really is a political paradigm shift happening right before our very eyes like we have never seen before, and it is catapulting President Trump back to the White House. This paradigm shift is causing yet another major swing state to flip!
Michaelah Montgomery who hugged Trump at Atlanta Chick-fil-A on Fox & Friends this morning dropping Truth pic.twitter.com/5frt6LqLtH
— I'LL BE BACK!!! (@DavidYeshua4) April 12, 2024
– Pennsylvania sees a significant shift in voter registration favoring Republicans, reducing the Democratic advantage.
– Trump’s potential paths to victory in 2024 include winning swing states like Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania.
– Trump’s support among black male voters has doubled since 2020, reaching levels not seen since Richard Nixon’s presidency.
Something is happening in the great swing state of Pennsylvania. Voter registration trends are suggesting a massive shift over to the Republicans throughout the Keystone state. Democrat governor Josh Shapiro instituted automatic voter registration throughout the state, and everyone was freaking out that this was but the latest Democrat gimmick to fix the election for 2024. Whatever the intentions, that gimmick has officially backfired. In the first month after that automatic voter registration measure, 3,194 Democrats registered, 4,052 Independents registered, and 7,657 Republicans registered.
As many Republicans registered in the state as Democrats and independents together, and even independent registration outpaced the Democrats by nearly 900! The Democratic voter registration advantage has gone from over 600,000 in 2020 to today, just a 397,000 advantage, which more than makes up for the amount that Biden ‘won’ by in 2020! He ‘won’ by only 80,000 votes in PA.
Scott Presler just posted comparable numbers from this morning. Scott has been on the frontlines of Pennsylvania voter registration: and his analysis is showing the same thing. Democrats are shrinking in Pennsylvania as Republican registrations are growing.
Thank you, Pennsylvania!
This November, we’re going to flip Bucks County from 🔵🔜🔴. pic.twitter.com/cS1Ci6vd5D
— #ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) April 8, 2023
He is actively registering more Republican voters such that more PA counties are poised to flip red. These efforts are being corroborated by the latest Big Data polling of PA that showed some pretty incredible results. According to Big Data polling, Trump is now trouncing Biden by 5 in Pennsylvania. This is very extensive polling that shows that Trump is up by over five points in the keystone state. Head-to-head, Trump is leading Biden 45.7 to 40.3. When those who haven’t decided who they’re going to vote for but are leaning one way, Trump gains. He leads 47% to 41.3%. This represents a near 2-point gain from the last Big Data polling in March. So Trump is officially expanding his lead over Biden in this key swing state.
The electoral map over at Red Eagle Politics shows what 2024 would look like if he wins the various swing states. Trump is highly likely to win Georgia. Trump has been beating Biden in every single poll in Georgia since October. Trump’s paths to victory in November include winning Michigan and Nevada. Or he can win Michigan and Wisconsin and pass 270. He could win Michigan and Arizona, Arizona and Wisconsin, or he could just win Pennsylvania. If Trump flips PA, it’s over!
In Michigan, Trump’s lead in the polling aggregate is now almost 5 points. He’s winning both PA and MI by around the same margin! As Rich Baris of the People’s Pundit’s reminds us, Michigan has a larger share of non-college grad voters, who are overwhelmingly supporting Trump. That blue-collar, non-college grad demographic is pulling Michigan to the right, and we’re seeing it in the RCP polling average.
The ultra-blue state of Minnesota is also in play. A Survey USA poll that just dropped shows that Trump and Biden are almost tied. Biden has a slight lead of 44 to Trump with 42. The key factor here is the amount of support for a third party candidate: it’s at 11%! Red Eagle Politics had a great analysis on this. He pointed out that the rule of thumb in Minnesota is that if the third party vote share hits the 8% threshold, Donald Trump has a very good shot at actually winning the state! We are seeing this consistently represented in RCP average
By comparison, in 2020, Biden was leading by over 7! Biden ended up winning Minnesota by only 2 in 2020. The polling average significantly overstated the Democrat support for Biden. The average was 7, he ended up winning by only 2. Apparently, that’s been a pattern over the years. Minnesota tends to overpoll for the Democrats and underpoll Republican support. If that’s the case, can you imagine the horror that Democrats are going through seeing Trump and Biden now close to a tie.
According to a Wall Street Journal poll of swing state voters in 7 different swing states, President Trump is getting an astonishing 30% of black male voters, which is more than double what he got in 2020. In 2020, according to exit polls, Trump got 12% of the black male vote. He has now more than doubled that and is getting 30%. This is the most black support for a Republican presidential candidate that we’ve seen since Richard Nixon’s blowout election in 1972. Trump is poised to win countless swing states and maybe even typically blue states in 2024 as he is also receiving record levels of support from many key demographics!
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