We are going to see what the betting markets are predicting for 2024, and why things are going from bad to worse for Biden and the Democrats!
Pelosi to protesters outside her house: "Go back to China where your headquarters is!" pic.twitter.com/n4c1zOsCNO
— HalalFlow (@halalflow) January 29, 2024
– Trump is leading Biden in recent polls by an average of 4.3%, a significant shift from the 2020 elections where Trump never led.
– Pollsters predict that Trump would easily win the electoral college vote, with Trump 10 points higher than needed in several polls.
– Betting markets overwhelmingly favor Trump based on consistent polling showing a desire for change from the Biden administration.
Polymarket, which is credited as the world’s largest prediction market, is giving its betting odds for 2024. Polymarket is predicting Trump has a 95% chance of securing the nomination, whereas Biden only has an 85% chance. They are arguing that Trump has a 55% chance of being the next president in comparison to Biden’s 39% chance. Michelle Obama was added there, amidst rumors she might get crowned as the Democrats’ nominee. Her predictive chances stand right now at just 2%!
Trump is now officially leading Biden in the polling by more than ever! According to the Real Clear Politics average which aggregates all of the polling out there, Trump is now beating Biden by 4.3%. Trump never led Biden in any polling in 2020. But now, Trump is dominating the polling. Of the last eight polls that have been taken over the last two weeks, Trump is beating Biden in every national poll with their methodologies, sampling sizes, and weights. Polls consistently show Trump crushing Biden.
The latest Reuters Poll has Trump leading Biden by 6 nationally. Just a month ago, they were tied. There is a clear double movement here: Trump is surging and Biden is collapsing. This is corroborated by the latest Messenger poll that has Trump up by seven nationally. One of the reasons the Democrats are freaking out here is because pollsters are predicting that Trump would easily win the electoral college vote. According to several polls, Trump is 10 points higher than where he needs to be to win the electoral college.
Even Never Trumper publications like the Washington Examiner are openly asking why Trump’s messaging is so on point. Trump is uniquely what Dick Morris calls a hybrid candidate. Trump is part incumbent and part candidate, or as Rich Baris puts it, he’s both incumbent and insurgent. Trump, unlike any other candidate, has a proven record that he can appeal to that’s infinitely better than Biden’s, but, unlike Biden, he’s new and is not the incumbent. Everywhere Trump goes, he can point to success after success after success as a proven track record for getting our nation back on track.
Byron York of the Washington Examiner puts it this way: Trump is surging because he has the simplest campaign pitch in the world: Things were good when he was president and everything went to hell when Joe Biden became president. If he is elected again, he will make things good again. This simple message is resonating with the majority of voters. This is the advantage Trump has as a hybrid candidate. Every time they indict him or accuse him of wanting to be a dictator, they are openly admitting that they can’t compete with his record.
No one buys the notion that if Trump wins reelection, inflation would go higher, the border would become even more of a mess, and the international order would unravel even further. Democrats know the voters aren’t that stupid. They know Trump is crushing them on the issues, so they have been left with no choice but to try to distract you with all this dictator nonsense. As we can see, it is not working. The betting markets are overwhelmingly siding with Trump based on the consistent polling showing that voters want a change. As far as they are concerned, they gave Biden his chance and now it is time to go back to what worked!
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