Is New Jersey about to flip red? It appears that Democrats in this historically blue state may soon face disaster as the Trump effect takes hold. Recent polling indicates an unexpected surge in support for former President Donald Trump, with a recent Emerson poll showing Trump enjoying a 47 percent approval rating, surpassing the incumbent Democrat Governor Phil Murphy's approval at just 40 percent. Analysts suggest that this isn’t a mere anomaly; it's indicative of a significant political shift occurring in the Garden State.
- Trump is increasingly popular in New Jersey, outpacing Governor Murphy in approval ratings.
- The shift towards the Republican side demonstrates a larger trend where previously solid blue counties are now flipping.
- The coming primary election is expected to highlight tensions within the Democratic Party, potentially affecting their chances in the upcoming gubernatorial race.
According to a piece by Quantum Insights, Trump's rise in New Jersey reflects a deeper disillusionment among voters who feel forgotten by a progressive establishment. Notably, compared to his dismal approval rating of 38 percent in 2020, Trump’s approval has climbed nearly 18 net points in just five years. This seismic shift is further illustrated by the decrease in support for Vice President Kamala Harris. Back in November, Harris won New Jersey by only a six-point margin, significantly down from President Biden’s 16-point victory in 2020. This suggests that Trump is flipping counties once thought to be Democrat strongholds, including Gloucester, Passaic, and even Morris County.
The changing voter registration landscape further underscores this trend, with Republicans adding approximately 152,000 new voters since 2020—an increase of about 10 percent. In contrast, Democrats have managed only a modest increase of 129,000. The ramifications of this registration advantage were evident during the 2021 gubernatorial race, where Murphy narrowly defeated Republican candidate Jack Chitarelli. Many analysts viewed that election as a harbinger of change, suggesting that if the Republican Governors Association had provided the same level of support that they did in Virginia, Chitarelli might have secured a victory.
As New Jersey approaches the critical June 10 primary date, observers are keenly watching the internal conflict brewing within the Democratic Party. The primary is shaping up to be a battleground between the entrenched progressive left and traditional liberals. Leading the fray is Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, who has positioned himself as a far-left candidate, campaigning for initiatives like universal basic income and higher taxes. In the opposite camp stands former Senate President Steve Sweeney, who prefers a more traditional blue-collar platform, yet remains weighed down by past defeats.
Regardless of who emerges victorious in the primary, they will be faced with the formidable challenge posed by Chitarelli, who came dangerously close to victory just a couple of years earlier. As New Jersey Democrats squabble over a dwindling political landscape, a larger consolidation of power appears to be occurring on a national scale. Data from the 2024 election reinforces the notion that the so-called "Obama coalition" is transforming into a Trump coalition, with young voters, Latino constituencies, and Black men showing marked shifts to the right.
The bottom line suggests that should the Democrats nominate a candidate like Baraka, New Jersey may be ripe for the taking. This primary will serve as a litmus test to gauge the reach of the new Trump coalition. If even one of the bluest states falls to the Trump effect, many other states like New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, and New Mexico may soon follow suit. The transformation of the once-solid Democratic coalition into a more conservative base signals an unprecedented shift in the political landscape, leaving Democrats with little more than crumbs from their former majority.
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