The fall of Bashar Assad marks a significant shift towards a resurgence of theocracies, challenging the liberal international order that U.S. neocons have long sought to protect. The swift advance of the Islamist militant group HTS across Syria has raised questions about the implications of such a regime change, particularly under a leadership that has ties to both ISIS and al-Qaeda.
- The collapse of Assad's regime has led to a new Islamic Republic in Syria.
- The emergence of constitutional theocracies signals a global trend favoring ancient religious governance.
- Neoconservative foreign policy failures in the Middle East are paving the way for an increased rejection of U.S. influence.
In a breathtaking turn of events, rebel forces spearheaded by HTS have managed to capture significant swathes of Syria, including major cities like Aleppo and Hama, in a matter of days. Despite support from Russian and Iranian forces, Assad’s military crumbled, forcing the Assad family into exile. This collapse is particularly startling in the context of the last four years, during which Assad’s forces had ostensibly secured a foothold over 60 to 80% of Syrian territory, thanks to the backing of powerful allies. With those allies now reportedly disengaged, the rebels struck with a force that left Assad scrambling for safety.
The ramifications of this upheaval evoke two pivotal dynamics: the failed foreign policy legacy from the Obama era and the ascent of new civilizationalist governance models, characterized by an unprecedented revitalization of theocracy. U.S. foreign policy has historically been aimed at supplanting regimes it deemed detrimental, a perspective underscored by academics like Jeffrey Sachs, who indicated that deposing Assad was crucial to countering Russian and Iranian influences. However, as these policies unravel, analysts are now questioning whether the latest developments genuinely benefit U.S. interests.
At the forefront of this new wave of political organization is Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, HTS's leader, signaling a terrifying shift into a new Islamic Republic that echoes the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan. Instead of fostering a pro-American democratic landscape, the downfall of Assad resurrects ancient governance frameworks that are witnessing a revival across the globe—a trend that appears to catch U.S. neocons entirely off guard.
Theocracies, by definition, intertwine governance with religious doctrine, marking a substantive return to systems once thought relegated to history. Yet, political scholar Ran Herschel highlights the emergence of "constitutional theocracies," where religious laws have constitutional boundaries that curtail state interference in the lives of citizens. Remarkably, since the Iranian revolution in 1979, an estimated half the global population now lives under various forms of constitutional theocracy—a phenomenon extending to populous nations like India and even China, where traditional beliefs are being integrated into modern governance structures.
This resurgent archeofuturism, as theorist Guillam Faye posited, embodies a return to ancient religious norms embedded within contemporary frameworks, showcasing a globally shifting tide against established U.S. hegemony and the wilting liberal order. Ironically, the neocon vision of a reformed Middle East, predicated on the dismantling of dictatorial regimes, is giving way to a civilizational paradigm that not only rejects Western ideals but actively fulfills the very conditions the U.S. sought to oppose. Thus, the outcomes of these foreign policy maneuvers are assuredly sealing the fate of a liberal international order that now appears more tenuous than ever.
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