Some Blue States May Flip Red for Trump!

States like New York, Minnesota, and Virginia are typically considered solid blue! However, we are seeing significant shifts in these states, indicating that Trump may even have a chance at winning them.

– Biden leads Trump by only 8 points in New York, a state he won by nearly 25 points in 2020.

– Trump is more likely to win New York, a deep blue state, than Biden is to win traditionally red states like Texas, Florida, or North Carolina.

– The shrinking margins in Democratic states could signal a broader realignment in the electoral map, with Trump making gains in unexpected areas.

New York is one of the bluest of blue states in the nation. Siena College just released a poll that shows Biden is leading Trump by only 8 points! He won New York by nearly 25 points in 2020. He is seeing a colossal collapse in support. One of the reasons for this is because New York independents are breaking for Trump. He has a double-digit lead among New York independents.

Trump, right now, is far more likely to win New York than Biden is to win Texas, Florida, or North Carolina. Trump is more likely to win a deep blue state than Biden is to win a red state. The latest polls coming out of Virginia and Minnesota, two solid Democrat states, Minnesota was the lone state that voted for Mondale in 84, and Virginia hasn’t voted Republican since 2004.

Biden is in danger of losing both Minnesota and Virginia. Three polls in a row are showing Trump and Biden now tied in Virginia. Trump and Biden are tied in a state that Biden won by 10 points in 2020. They are also tied in Minnesota.

By comparison, Trump is in danger of losing no reliably Republican states. If Trump is poised to win Virginia and Minnesota, there is no possible scenario where he loses the swing states. They are significantly more Republican than either Virginia or Minnesota. In the swing states, we are seeing them all +6 and above for Trump in comparison to either Minnesota or Virginia!

Trump doesn’t actually have to win Virginia or Minnesota. Biden possibly losing those two reliably Democrat states is important NOT because he actually WILL lose them. It’s significant because that polling is indicative of how he would lose the blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania because there are more Republicans in those states. If Biden is in danger of losing states that are heavily Democrat, how much more is he in danger of losing states that are more Republican?

The Des Moines Register is considered by many to be one of the most reputable pollsters out there. They generally poll within the margin of error. They are showing that in Iowa, which was one of the bluest states in the nation, Trump now has a nearly 20-point lead over Biden. In a four-way race, with RFK among others in the mix, Trump leads Biden by an astonishing 18 points. All of these crosstabs do far more in terms of explaining why, according to the latest Emerson polling, Trump is up in every single swing state!

Copyright, 2024.

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