Pollster Rich Baris of the Peoples’ Pundit has compiled the data and is absolutely spot on in his analysis here. Trump’s base is not the Republicans’ base. In many ways, we found that out the hard way in 2022, amid McConnell and McCarthy sabotaging so many MAGA candidates across the country.
– Trump’s base is distinct from the Republican base, and support for Trump does not necessarily transfer to other Republican candidates.
– The 2024 election is crucially tied to Rust Belt states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Georgia, and Trump remains the working-class candidate with broad appeal.
– The donor class’s influence and support for the weaponization of the legal system are not working, and Trump’s dominance in the primary is undeniable.
Trump’s base is not the Republicans’ base. Just because Trump wins a county does not mean a Republican is going to win it. That is perhaps the biggest miscalculation among people like Ben Shapiro and the mega-donors. They assumed that Trump’s vote would easily transfer over to their Republican candidate if they could take Trump out via the indictments.
The bizarre irony with the DeSantis campaign is he is rooting for these indictments. As we saw in his cringeworthy MSNBC interview, he wants the indictments and convictions to work against Trump and in his favor. This is the insane irony with the pro-DeSantis crowd. They think they can plausibly put forward DeSantis as the anti-establishment candidate when he so blatantly sides with the very establishment that has weaponized the legal system against Trump.
This election comes down to the Rust Belt states. The working class states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Georgia. Only one Republican candidate is crushing it with the white and non-white working class. That is Donald Trump. He is the working class candidate. No one else including Biden, DeSantis, Pence, and Christie has the same attraction as Trump to the working class.
In Ohio, a state Trump won twice by 10 points, Biden is beating DeSantis. Trump’s base is not the Republicans’ base. It can be, but the Republicans are going to have to go through a major political renovation. They are going to have to completely turn their backs on the RINOs and their pro-open borders, pro-war establishment if they want to initiate Trump’s base as their own.
Rich has even shown how Trump is surging with that one demographic that all DeSantis supporters claimed was Trump’s downfall: suburban women. Trump is surging with suburban women, and the latest jobs report disaster is only going to increase Trump’s support. Among non-white suburban women, Trump’s support is even stronger.
And again, just to underscore how dominant Trump is here. Rich has shown that Trump’s lead only grows when he is matched head-to-head with any single Republican candidate. This primary is over, and it is over because of the total incoherence of any viable political strategy for any other candidate. They have all been trying to run as anti-establishment candidates while being backed openly by the establishment.
It is a completely incoherent political strategy. Jack Posobiec foregrounded precisely this incoherence when he tweeted out about the debates: ‘Weird how Biden is jailing the leader of the Republican Party and Democrat judges are dissolving his business and no one at the GOP primary debate seems to have noticed. They’ll take on the deep state!’
We are all up here on this stage having this debate while completely and willfully ignoring the total weaponization of our legal system against a former president. We are just going to dutifully pretend that’s not happening because it is being supported by our donors. Our donor class, like the Club for Growth, is behind this weaponization. This is not working. Trump is surging, and these incoherent simpletons are imploding. Is it any wonder that 76% of Republican voters want an end to the GOP debates and instead, have the entire party rally around Trump and crush Biden and the Deep State Democrats? This primary is over, Trump’s dominance is uncontested.
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