Nate Silver Predicts Doom For Democrats in November!

Even with the rigged debates, it may indeed all be far too late for the Bumblin’ Biden campaign to recover. We have the latest election forecast from none other than the Democrat darling Nate Silver himself.

– The latest forecasts and polling data indicate a strong advantage for Donald Trump in the upcoming 2024 election.

– Nate Silver of 538 gives Trump a 66% chance of victory, while The Economist’s forecast model puts it at 68%.

– National polls also show a shift in Trump’s favor, with the New York Times and Quinnipiac both indicating leads for Trump.

The much hyped-up so-called wonder kid of polling, Nate Silver of 538, has just dropped his first official forecast for November. It’s not even close. In his words, “the election right now is NOT a toss-up!” There is a clear favorite. Nate Silver is giving Donald J. Trump a 66% chance of victory over Joe Biden on November 5th.

This corroborates The Economist’s current forecast model, which gives Trump a 68% chance of winning. Two different methodologies and two different polling samples are both coming to comparable numbers, 66 and 68! To Nate Silver, it really does seem to come down to the swing states. He wrote that the 2024 race “looks a lot like 2012 (when he correctly predicted that Obama would win reelection). It looks a lot like 2012 but in reverse. In 2012, the national polls were pretty close between Romney and Obama but all the swing state polls consistently favored Obama. That played out to give him the far more robust electoral map.

That appears to be exactly what we’re seeing here but in reverse. Now it’s the challenger, Trump, who is dominating the swing states. Even the national polls look like they’re beginning to reflect Trump’s swing state dominance.

The latest New York Times poll just dropped. It has Trump up by 4, 48 to 44, among likely voters. Among registered voters, we are seeing Trump up by 6. That’s huge because Trump voters are low-propensity voters who generally don’t come out for midterm elections or off-year elections, but they come out in droves for Trump. The latest from Quinnipiac, which is as pro-Democrat of a poll as you can get, shows Trump opening up a 4 point lead.

Their findings over the last six months have varied greatly. Back in January, they had Biden up by 6. In February, they had Biden +4 and in May, Biden was +1. Now, in June, even Quinnipiac can’t deny it anymore. They have Trump +4.

The latest favorability polling coming from Gallup has Trump up by nearly double-digits. Voters have a more favorable view of Trump over Biden by 9 points. Biden is stuck in the 30s. According to gallup, Biden has gone from a favorability rating of 60% back in January 2021 to now the mid-30s. Trump is the opposite and has gone from a favorability in the mid-30s in January of 2021 to now 46%.

A Washington Post poll of swing state voters showed that when asked who they trust more to protect democracy, people chose Trump by double digits. Trump is up by 11, 44 to 33! They even polled under 30 voters and found that Trump was still up by 9, 38 to 29. The left cannot fall back on the 70% mail-in ballot fiasco of 2020. Arizona has cleaned up and regulated their elections, Georgia has cleaned up and regulated their elections, Wisconsin’s Supreme Court has declared ballot harvesting unconstitutional in their state. 2020 isn’t happening again!

This Washington Post poll is beyond devastating for the Democrats. Trump clearly has the winds at his back and Biden is without question in dire straits.

Copyright, 2024.

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