All the data on the current state of the race between Trump and Kamala shows that we have a massive psy-op going on right now. We are seeing a gaslighting infowar operation unlike anything we have ever seen from the legacy media.
– Donald Trump is in a stronger position to win the White House, while the Democrats and Kamala are weaker than ever.
– Polling experts suggest that Harris’s numbers are inflated through response bias, which misrepresents the actual voting electorate.
– The media’s efforts to promote Harris are an acknowledgment of her political weakness and reliance on a manufactured image.
Donald J. Trump is stronger than he has ever been and is in a better position to win the White House than he has ever been. At the same time, the Democrats and their candidate are weaker than they have ever been against him. According to real clear politics polling average, Biden was beating Trump by over 7 points August 15th 2020. On August 15th, 2016, Hillary was also up by 7 points. As of August 15th, 2024, Kamala is up by not even a full percentage point at 0.9%!
Trump has never been stronger, and the Democrats have never been weaker against him. Trump went on to overcome those polling deficits overwhelmingly and won in 2016 as the first republican to win over 300 electoral votes in 30 years. He ‘lost 2020’ by only 40,000 votes. As Harry Enten of CNN has been pointing out, Trump consistently performs five points better than his polling.
So what on earth should we make of all of this crazy polling that shows the most unpopular vice president in our history suddenly surging to the most popular human being on the planet? An interview by Rich Barris and Robert Barnes describes the polling situation we are seeing.
This interview shows exactly what’s happening in the current polling. They show you exactly how Harris’s poll numbers are being inflated through something called response bias: which, when all is said and done, involves a polling sample that does not accurately reflect the overall demographics of who actually comes out to vote, either through mail or on election day!
These polls inordinately advantage Democrat constituencies in ways that are completely disproportionate to the actual voting electorate. Baris and Barnes show that there’s really no such thing as a swing voter anymore. There is in the sense that one or two percent of the electorate can be swayed one way or the other, but all of these fraud polls that have been coming out of late are trying to convince you that 10-15% of the population just suddenly swung on over to Kamala in the last two weeks!
There’s solid data to show that is emphatically not happening. It is an illusion created by pollsters and pundits, who are all bought and paid for. It’s what Baris and Barnes call a ‘phantom swing.’ We have seen it before, particularly in the 2012 election. Moreover, they get into something called the ‘recall vote,’ which is determining who the polling sample voted for in 2020. According to these measurements, Trump has lost none of his base.
Everyone who voted for him in 2020 is going to vote for him again, and he won more votes than any incumbent in history. This is a clue as to why the media is doing what they’re doing here with trying to make Kamala look like the second coming. But the truth is, Trump has lost none of his base, whereas Biden and Kamala have lost some of their base. Many who voted Trump in 2016 and then voted Biden in 2020 are coming back to Trump.
Moreover, Harris is doing significantly worse with white and non-white working class voters than even Hillary did. Even if Hillary had gotten Barack Obama’s level of black vote in 2016, she still would have lost because she lost the white working class vote that badly! And Kamala is doing even worse than Hillary in that demographic, which is key for Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
What Barnes and Baris point out is that a much more accurate indicator of what’s really happening in a presidential race is voter registration; how are voters registering just before the election, and the Republicans are absolutely crushing it in voter registration, particularly in PA, where they are out-registering Democrats 4 to 1. That is a real indicator of who has the momentum here.
We are trying to cut through all of the insanity with REAL numbers and REAL methodology. Now, what’s really happening with Kamala is what’s technically called ‘astroturfing.’ What is happening right now is the very definition of the term: Astroturfing refers to any organized activity that deliberately intends to create a false impression of a widespread, spontaneously arising, grassroots movement in support of or in opposition to something.
The good news is that this is what the MAGA movement is. It is organic, natural, and the result of a whole host of anti-globalist dynamics that we cover on this channel each and every day, and it’s not limited to the United States. This is what scholars call civilizational populism, which is a widespread revolt against the anti cultural dynamics of globalization and its technocratic managerial aristocracy.
This is something that’s happening quite literally all over the world, and the MAGA movement is the American version of this very organic, predictable backlash against globalization. That’s not what is going on with Kamala Harris. Harris represents nothing. She doesn’t represent hope and change, she doesn’t represent a backlash against globalization, she doesn’t represent anything. Everything surrounding her campaign is astroturfed.
It’s a marketing campaign to make you think that people are very excited about the most unpopular vice president ever recorded in the history of polling. The key amplifier of this astroturfing is the legacy media. The most plausible explanation for what is happening right now is that the legacy media worked together with the Democrat leadership to oust Biden. This explains all the horrific coverage that Biden got after that debate. It wasn’t honest coverage. Many of us thought that finally the media was reporting reality, when in fact, what the media was doing was exploiting reality in order to get rid of Biden.
They planned to roll out the single greatest makeover charade ever seen in the history of politics. They deliberately coordinated and planned out how they would roll out a new Kamala with celebrity status and then claim that Trump pales in comparison to this new gem that has stepped onto the political stage.
At one level this is an admission that Kamala is a political disaster and that apart from an artificially orchestrated lie she would go down in flames. But at another level, it’s incumbent upon the Trump team to reveal that to the American people. Some commercials in the Pennsylvania area show the Trump team absolutely crushing Kamala on her radical record. All of that is being put to the fore to show that she’s actually a fraud.
In order to prevent the astroturf narrative from having widespread effect, the Trump team is going to have to be very deliberate in terms of how they blow up that narrative and reveal Kamala for just how unpopular and worthy of disdain she really is. If they do that, this is gonna be one massive astroturfed induced train wreck!
Erin Weeks is a Staff Writer for Turley Talks
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