Could China SEIZE Taiwan and SPARK WW3!?

So what happens if China invades Taiwan? Ever since Biden’s troop withdrawal disaster in Afghanistan, Chinese media like the Global Times have warned Taiwan in no uncertain terms that should war break out in the Straits, the island’s defenses will collapse. The Chinese media has warned that the US military, weakened by liberal incompetence and mismanagement, simply won’t come to help. But what would that actually look like?

– The Daily Mail’s recent feature on a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan presents a detailed and dramatic wargame scenario.

– One critical dimension left out of the Daily Mail’s scenario is the role of cyber warfare.

– While the scenario presented by the Daily Mail highlights the potential military strategies China could employ, the likelihood of such an event remains low due to the high risks and costs involved.

The Daily Mail just featured a graphic extravaganza on what it would look like if China invaded Taiwan. It was a stunning wargames deep dive into how China could pull it off, and it was a stark reminder of how we are living in the midst of a new multipolar with China and Russia as very serious military competitors!

How would China pull-off a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? According to the Daily Mail’s wargames, it would all start with a Chinese blockade of the island. The Chinese navy would begin by deploying a massive fleet of cruisers, frigates, and destroyers to besiege Taiwan’s eastern coast, surrounding the island and cutting it off from US supply chains.

The ships and the missiles they carry would act as air defense barriers, shooting down any American aircraft that gets too close to the island and any incoming American missiles aimed at Chinese landing ships or troops. An entire fleet of Chinese submarines would deploy even further east, using stealth and torpedoes to stop any US battleships or aircraft carriers from approaching Taiwan or trying to break the Chinese blockade. Then, according to this analysis from the Daily, we would see a shock and awe campaign.

The Chinese would launch a huge decapitation strike, targeting every airfield and port in Taiwan with the aim of destroying all aircraft, ships, radar, air defenses and command posts. Most controversially, the wargames predicted that Chinese missiles would also target US bases in Japan and Guam in order to thwart the US from coming to Taiwan’s aid. Now, in war games, the Daily Mail informs us that Taiwan’s entire navy and all-but a few of its fighters were completely destroyed during this stage of the battle because of the sheer number of missiles that China had at its disposal.

China would then seize the skies and establish total air dominance. Chinese jets would swarm the skies over Taiwan, aiming to achieve total air superiority by shooting down any remaining Taiwanese jets, and blowing up air defense missile batteries. This would allow Chinese fighters, bombers and plane transports to operate freely in transporting troops to Taiwan and bombing Taiwanese ground forces.

The biggest threat, according to the wargames scenario, would come from Taiwan’s ground-based air defense missiles as well as shoulder-mounted missiles that individual troops could carry. Also, American bombers could still launch missiles at Chinese ships and troops from a distance.

The Daily Mail notes that the number of landing sites is limited because of the many steep cliffs which cover most of the eastern shore. The Chinese will most likely opt for a handful of beaches in the west and the south. The sea landing would be accompanied by a mass number of paratroopers dropping from planes, and a handful of long-range helicopters which land troops on the west coast.

Once establishing control over the cities in the south, Chinese troops would then begin the long and slow process of fighting their way north ultimately into Taipei. Taiwan’s west coast is heavily urban and densely populated, so the wargames predict very fierce and costly street-to-street battles with massive military and civilian casualties.

The humanitarian crisis would be horrific. Once the capital city of Taipei is captured, China would declare victory and announce the full annexation of Taiwan into mainland China.

This is obviously a very detailed and dramatic scenario, and at least one very important dimension of the conflict was left out. There are reports that if China invades, that invasion will include a massive cybersecurity attack on our vulnerable infrastructure to at least partly shut down our retaliation capabilities. At a recent security conference in Munich, the FBI director made it clear that the cyber threat posed by the Chinese government is massive.

With our 3,300 utilities and sprawling web of 5.5 million miles of distribution lines, the United States is particularly vulnerable to cyber incursions. One of those groups, perhaps the most pernicious, is known as Volt Typhoon. They’re a CCP hacking group which the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency notes are lurking in critical infrastructure across our country.

The concern here is that this cybersecurity breach would be part of China’s overall offensive against Taiwan were they to launch one. So there actually is a whole other front that could open up in this potential conflict. The good news is that China is not likely going to embark on something like this. The urban warfare that invading Taiwan would necessitate would alone dissuade Chinese officials from attempting something like this.

China, while it talks tough with regard to Taiwan, has already signaled that they are playing the long game here. The second most popular party in Taiwan, the KMT, is a pro-China party. There are also some fringe parties that are very pro-China. So China believes that over time, there will be a natural and organic unification that requires no military aggression.

This can happen, according to Chinese officials, as long as the United States stays out of meddling in the affairs between the two nations. Unfortunately, the dolts in DC tend to meddle and mess up foreign relations. While China will likely continue its policy of strategic patience towards Taiwan, we can hope that our current batch of incompetent leaders don’t end up making the wargames scenario a reality!

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